I will be joining the Federal Reserve Board in October 2020

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Working Papers

  1. Is There a Stable Relationship between Unemployment and Future Inflation?. October 2020.
    (with Terry Fitzgerald, Mariano Kulish and Juan Pablo Nicolini)

  2. Optimal Mitigation Policies in a Pandemic: Social Distancing and Working from Home. October 2020. (with Thomas Philippon and Venky Venkateswaran)
    NBER Working Paper

  3. Entry Costs and the Macroeconomy. July 2019. (with Germán Gutiérrez and Thomas Philippon)
    NBER Working Paper

  4. Household Leverage and the Recession. June 2018. (with Virgiliu Midrigan and Thomas Philippon)
    Econometrica, Revise & Resubmit
    NBER Working Paper

  5. International Spillovers of Forward Guidance Shocks. April 2020. (with Mariano Kulish and Dan Rees)
    Journal of Applied Econometrics, Revise & Resubmit
    IMF Working Paper

  6. Aging, Secular Stagnation and the Business Cycle. January 2020.
    Review of Economics and Statistics, Revise & Resubmit

  7. Unanticipated Shocks and Forward Guidance at the ZLB. October 2017.


  1. A Graphical Representation of an Estimated New Keynesian Model. 2016. (with Mariano Kulish)
    Applied Economics
  2. Long-term Interest Rates, Risk Premia and Unconventional Monetary Policy. 2013. (with Mariano Kulish)
    Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control
  3. Detection of Anticipated Structural Changes in a Rational Expectations Environment. 2013. (with Luis Uzeda)
    Applied Economics Letters
  4. Time-Varying Term Premia and the Expectations Hypothesis in Australia. 2011. (with Richard Finlay)
    Applied Economics Letters
  5. Return to Wine: A Comparison of the Hedonic, Repeat Sales, and Hybrid Approaches. 2011. (with James Fogarty)
    Australian Economic Papers
  6. House Price Measurement: The Hybrid Hedonic Repeat-Sales Method. 2009.
    Economic Record

Other Papers / Policy Contributions

  1. Argentina: Fourth Review Under the Stand-By Arrangement. 2019.
    IMF Country Report
  2. Review Of The Fund’s Policy On Multiple Currency Practices: Initial Considerations. 2019.
    IMF Policy Paper
  3. The Rise of Corporate Market Power and its Macroeconomic Effects. 2019.
    IMF World Economic Outlook (WEO), Chapter 2
    Planet Money | The Economist | The Guardian | WSJ | Bloomberg

  4. The External Balance Assessment Methodology: 2018 Update. 2019.
    IMF Working Paper

  5. Demographics, Old-Age Transfers and the Current Account. 2018. (with Mai Chi Dao)
    IMF Working Paper

  6. The Secular Stagnation of Investment. 2016. (with Thomas Philippon)
    The Economist

  7. IMF External Sector Report. 2018.


Gensys C++ mex Function and Julia Comparison. These notes discuss a C++ implementation of a solution of a linear rational expectations model. Compared to the Sims (2002) implementation, there is a significant speed up. The notes compare the speed of a simple change to the Sims (2002) implementation and Julia routines.
Matlab files

A Practical Introduction to DSGE Modeling with Dynare. These notes show how to install Dynare, how to write a model in Dynare notation, what information is stored in the Matlab output, and how to estimate and forecast using Dynare.
Matlab files

Extracting Rational Expectations Model Structural Matrices from Dynare. These notes show how to extract the structural matrices from the Dynare output. These matrices are used to show how to approximation the solution of models with anticipated structural changes, the zero lower bound, and other occasionally binding constraints.
Matlab files