Principal Economist
Monetary Affairs
Federal Reserve Board
Disclaimer: The views on this website are my own and not those of the Federal Reserve System or the Federal Reserve Board.
Deeds Not Words: Inflation in the United States, Japan and Chile (with Mariano Kulish and Juan Pablo Nicolini)
Nonlinear Inflation Dynamics in Menu Cost Economies (with Andres Blanco, Corina Boar and Virgiliu Midrigan)
Nonlinear Dynamics in Menu Cost Economies? Evidence from U.S. Data (with Andres Blanco, Corina Boar and Virgiliu Midrigan)
The Inflation Accelerator (with Andres Blanco, Corina Boar and Virgiliu Midrigan)
Supply Chain Constraints and Inflation (with Diego Comin and Robert Johnson)
A Structural Measure of the Shadow Federal Funds Rate (with Mariano Kulish and James Morley)
Download Latest Shadow Rate Estimate
Credit Cycles, Fiscal Policy, and Global Imbalances (with Pau Rabanal)
Appendix
Journal of International Economics, Conditionally Accepted
Priors and the Slope of the Phillips Curve (with Mariano Kulish and Juan Pablo Nicolini)
Unanticipated Shocks and Forward Guidance at the ZLB
Appendix
Is There a Stable Relationship between Unemployment and Future Inflation? (with Terry Fitzgerald, Mariano Kulish and Juan Pablo Nicolini)
Appendix
AEJ: Macroeconomics, Forthcoming
Import Constraints (with Diego Comin and Robert Johnson)
American Economic Review: Papers and Proceedings
Aging, Secular Stagnation and the Business Cycle
Appendix
Review of Economics and Statistics, Forthcoming
Household Leverage and the Recession (with Virgiliu Midrigan and Thomas Philippon)
Appendix
Econometrica, 2022
Yield Curve Control and Zero Interest Rate Policy in a Small Open Economy (with Mariano Kulish)
Australian Economic Review, 2022
Entry Costs and Aggregate Dynamics (with German Gutiérrez and Thomas Philippon)
Appendix, 2019 Version
Journal of Monetary Economics, 2021
Optimal Mitigation Policies in a Pandemic: Social Distancing and Working from Home
(with Thomas Philippon and Venky Venkateswaran)
Review of Financial Studies, 2021
International Spillovers of Forward Guidance Shocks (with Mariano Kulish and Daniel M. Rees)
Appendix Github
Journal of Applied Econometrics, 2021
A Graphical Representation of an Estimated New Keynesian Model (with Mariano Kulish)
Applied Economics, 2016
Long-term Interest Rates, Risk Premia and Unconventional Monetary Policy
(with Mariano Kulish)
Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 2013
Detection of Anticipated Structural Changes in a Rational Expectations Environment
(with Luis Uzeda)
Applied Economics, 2013
Return to Wine: A Comparison of the Hedonic, Repeat Sales, and Hybrid Approaches
(with James Fogarty)
Australian Economic Papers, 2011
House Price Measurement: The Hybrid Hedonic Repeat-Sales Method
Economic Record, 2010
A Practical Introduction to DSGE Modeling with Dynare
matlab files
Extracting Rational Expectations Model Structural Matrices from Dynare
matlab files
The Rise of Corporate Market Power and its Macroeconomic Effects
IMF World Economic Outlook (WEO), 2019, Chapter 2
The External Balance Assessment Methodology: 2018 Update
IMF Working Paper, 2019
The Secular Stagnation of Investment
(with Thomas Philippon)
Demographics, Old-Age Transfers and the Current Account
(with Mai Chi Dao)